The holidays are still hot — but consumers are changing the rules.
State of the Consumer: Holiday 2025
By Nick Bartlow
SVP, Intelligence
BarkleyOKRP
The 2025 holiday season is still happening — it just grew up, cut up its credit card, and decided to get serious. And the brands that win the next six weeks will be the ones who understand the new math of modern consumer gravity.
Let’s start with the tough love: Gen Z and Millennials are pulling back hard. According to the data from our modern consumer dashboard, Gen Z’s expected spend is down 34% YoY, and Millennials follow with a 13% drop.
Their financial pressure has finally reached the breaking point — and it shows.
But don’t mistake “pulling back” for “checking out.” These younger generations still want the season to feel good… they’re just spending differently. Specifically, they’re shifting dollars from stuff to experiences.
Experiences are the only category still seeing growth, which tells us the emotional ROI matters more than the physical one.
And then there’s the quiet giant: social commerce.
BarkleyOKRP’s Modern Consumer Dashboard also shows us the moment we’ve been waiting for — social shopping is no longer the side quest; it is the game. Gen Z and Millennials have fully integrated consumption with social, with Gen X close behind.
If your brand doesn’t show up in social commerce, you are voluntarily opting out of their wallet. TikTok Shop, Instagram product tagging, and influencer-driven discovery — these are now table stakes, not innovations.
But here’s the twist: in-store isn’t dying — it’s resurging in key categories. Apparel, beauty, jewelry, décor… consumers want to touch the thing before they buy the thing. Gen Z especially — 76% of them plan to do over half their holiday shopping in stores. If you needed proof that omnichannel isn’t an OR strategy… here you go.
Pile on the last ingredient: the ‘Five-Day Frenzy’ still runs the show.
Our dashboard data also shows that nearly 40% of holiday gift spending happens in the five days surrounding Thanksgiving.
So what does that all mean?
Simple. The brands that win December started preparing yesterday. But it’s not too late to make moves that matter:
1. Treat the Monday before Thanksgiving like the Super Bowl.
The Modern Consumer Dashboard refers to it as Key Message Monday. Consumers want momentum heading into the frenzy — give it to them. Build anticipation.
2. Sell the experience behind your product.
If you sell goods, package the feeling they create. If you sell experiences, prove the lasting emotional value they provide. This is where modern holiday gravity lives.
3. Fix your social commerce presence — yesterday.
People are scrolling, tapping, clicking, and buying. Your product detail pages, thumbnails, bundles, and partnerships — they all matter. Tighten the screws.
4. Choose your hero product and push it like it’s your job.
Gift-giving is still the heart of the season. Make it ridiculously easy for shoppers to understand the best thing to buy from you.
So stop viewing consumers as the problem this holiday season, and instead view them as the answer. They’re the blueprint — and they’re telling us exactly how to win. Brands just need to listen.
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BarkleyOKRP’s Modern Consumer Demand Dashboard tracks key economic data, demonstrating headwinds or tailwinds for consumers, as well as their attitudes towards their financial situation. Know the next move before your consumers make theirs. Contact our Chief Growth Officer, Jason Parks, at jparks@barkleyokrp.com to learn more.